The Big Picture of Employment
The news often contains employment stories about companies
closing and people being laid off work. It can be very discouraging to anyone
planning a career.
Michael's brother looked beyond the bad news. He did some
research and learned where the jobs were. He was then able to match his skills
to a field where there were a growing number of jobs.
This chapter looks at "the big picture" of employment
in the United States. In it, you will learn about the kinds of things that
affect employment and employment trends. As Michael's brother did, you can use
such information to become informed and to prepare yourself for the future.
What Affects Employment?
Stop anyone on the street. Ask that person how well he or she
thinks the country is doing. Chances are, the person will bring up the
unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is the percentage of people in
the labor force who are looking for work but have not found jobs. If
unemployment is down, the person will probably say the country is doing well.
If unemployment is up, things might not seem so great.
In this chapter, you will read about four important factors which
may affect overall employment and employment trends:
the demand for goods and services
international events
technology
the population
The Demand for Goods and Services
Every country produces goods and services. Goods are
things you can see, touch, buy, and sell. Clothing and food are examples of
goods. A service is any work that a person does for others for money.
Salespersons, doctors, and basketball players all provide services.
In the United States, businesses decide which goods and services
to produce. Business decisions are based on what people will buy and how much
they will pay. This demand directly affects the number and types of jobs
available.
Here is an example. Over the last 30 years, travel has become
easier and less expensive. As a result, more people are willing and able to
travel. This creates a demand for more travel services. If the trend continues,
there will be more jobs for travel agents in the future.
Of course, nothing is quite that simple. In the American economy,
demand, production, and employment go through business cycles. Over the
period of a cycle, the economy grows for a period of time and then shrinks for
a period of time. Here's how it works:
A long, severe recession is called a depression. The highest
unemployment rate in the United States was in 1932 during the Great Depression.
Unemployment skyrocketed to almost 24 percent.
Seasonal unemployment
occurs when people are out of work for part of the year because of the seasonal
nature of their jobs.
When people can spend more money, businesses produce more for
them to buy. In order to produce more, businesses employ more workers. During
these times, the economy is growing. This growth hits a peak, and then demand
starts to slow. People spend less. Businesses produce less. Fewer workers are
needed. Cyclical unemployment occurs during this downturn in the
business cycle. If the downturn lasts six months or longer, the economy is said
to be in a recession.
Careers Practice
Answer these questions on a separate sheet of paper.
1. Explain the difference between goods and services.
2. Suppose you hear on the news that there is a downturn in
economic activity. What does this mean in terms of overall employment?
3. What is one occupation that might experience seasonal
unemployment?
International Events
International events can also greatly affect overall employment.
In fact, an international event was responsible for the lowest-ever
unemployment rate in this country. In 1944, World War II was raging across the
sea. In the United States, the production of wartime equipment was way up. In
addition, the labor force was small. Many of the young men who normally would
have been working in factories were in the armed forces instead. As a result,
the unemployment rate dropped to 1.2 percent.
Trade agreements and foreign competition can also affect
employment. For example, in the early 1970s the price of foreign oil dropped.
In turn, the United States began importing more oil. This caused many oil
workers in the United States to lose their jobs.
Technology
Technology has made it possible to produce goods and services
faster. It has given us better health care. It has allowed us to find out what
is happening on the other side of the world in seconds. However, as technology
plays a larger role in our lives, the number of jobs in some fields will shrink
or disappear altogether. The best example of this is in manufacturing. In
1979, about 21 million Americans held manufacturing jobs. The current trend
shows manufacturing jobs decreasing. According to one estimate, the number of
manufacturing jobs will shrink to 600,000 by the year 2005.
Of course, technology also creates jobs. The field of computer
programming, for example, has boomed in the last 20 years. Workers must often
learn new skills to do new jobs. When workers do not have the skills, there is structural
unemployment Structural unemployment is usually more serious and longerlasting
than cyclical unemployment.
The Population
Facts or characteristics about a population, such as age, sex,
and patterns of employment, are called demographics. By studying a
population's
demographics, we can better predict where the new jobs will be.
For example, after World War II there was a baby boom in this country.
The birth rate went up 50 percent. A large part of the current U.S. population was born in the 1950s. As these "baby boomers" get older, they
will demand more health
Can you think of a job that was created by technology?
care services. This is one of the reasons why jobs in the health
care industry are growing.
In general, the work force of the future will be more diverse.
The number of women in the work force will continue to grow. About one
quarter of the American
work force will be made up of African Americans and Latinos.
Careers Practice
Answers these questions on a separate sheet of paper. 1. Give an
example of technology creating a new job field.
2. What is happening to the number of manufacturing jobs?
3. Give an example of how the baby boom may affect employment in
the year 2000.
Five Major Employment Trends
Every two years, the Department of Labor looks at trends in U.S. employment. These trends are best guesses about
what will happen. They can be changed by changes in the demand for goods
and services, international events, technology, and the population.
Being aware of trends can help you be realistic about job
competition. It also can help you prepare yourself with skills and education.
However, you should not choose a
career based only on trends. Your interests, skills, talents, and abilities are
also important.
As you read about these trends, remember that many factors affect
employment. Also, these trends are a look at what is happening in the United States as a whole. The trends where you live might be different.
Here are five of the major trends expected to continue between
now and the year 2005:
1. Overall, the American economy is expected to keep growing.
If the economy grows at a steady pace, the number of jobs should
grow by about 19 percent. Roughly 1.5 million new jobs will be created each
year.
2. The greatest number of jobs will be in service occupations.
Overall, this category of jobs is expected to grow 29 percent,
from 19 million to almost 25 million jobs. Police officers, dental assistants,
fast-food workers, and barbers are all examples of people with service jobs.
3. The fastest growing occupations are in the technical field.
Technology is rapidly changing. It is no wonder that there will
be a demand for people who can work with the new equipment being created. Many
of the technical jobs will be health-related. For example.
emergency medical technicians will be in high demand. These
people will have to know how to operate the latest lifesaving equipment on
ambulances.
People with technical jobs don't always work with machines. For
instance, the fastest-growing group in the technical category is paralegals.
Paralegals help lawyers. Among other things, they do research and handle a
lot of paperwork. In the coming years, lawyers are expected to rely more and
more on paralegals.
4. Fewer jobs will be available in agriculture, forestry,
fishing, mining, and manufacturing.
Technology will be responsible for much of the decline in these
areas. Farms in the United States will continue to produce great amounts of
food. However, with improved equipment, it will take fewer people to produce
it. The same thing is happening in mining and manufacturing.
5. To get better paying jobs, workers of the future will need to
be better skilled and better educated.
This is a very important trend. On average, workers who have the
most education will earn the most per year. They will also experience less
unemployment. This trend does not mean that everyone must have four
years of college to get a job. High school graduates with solid math, language,
and problemsolving skills should be able to find jobs with good pay. There
will be service jobs for those who do not have those skills, too. However,
these jobs will pay less on average than jobs in other fields.
You and Employment Trends
Again, these trends are just one piece of your career puzzle. You
must also explore your interests and abilities. You must look more closely at
specific fields
and careers. Then you must make your choice. Studying trends can
help you with your decision, but they are only one factor to consider.
Careers Practice
Use the graph to answer these questions. Write your answers on a
separate sheet of paper.
1. What is the average yearly pay of a person with fewer than
four years of high school?
2. What is the average yearly pay of someone with four years of
high school?
3. As the number of years of education increases, what else
increases?